Why models decay
What it is
A model is a snapshot of the world when its training data was collected. It decays as the world moves:
- customer tastes and habits change;
- the business changes: new cities, products, prices, app screens;
- the environment changes: seasons, events, competitors;
- adversaries adapt to the model itself.
Measure the decay: train once, then score each following week, and plot error against weeks since training.
Why it matters
The decay curve tells you how often to retrain.
- A slow curve: monthly retraining is fine.
- A steep one: daily retraining, or fresher features, or both.
- It also tells you how bad things get if retraining fails for a week.
In the real world: Kirana Kart's measurements show its ETA model loses accuracy within days (traffic and store patterns move), while its product-category classifier barely changes over six months.
Visual example
ComputedETA error 4 minutes at release, growing about 3% a week. It crosses the 10% tolerance in week 4.
Retraining at least every few weeks keeps error inside tolerance; Kirana Kart retrains nightly because the run is cheap.
Choosing 'retrain weekly' by habit. Without the curve, it may be far too often (wasted effort) or far too rarely (weeks of avoidable error).