Why errors compound
What it is
An agent's task succeeds only if every step goes right. If each step succeeds with probability p, a task of n steps succeeds with probability about p to the power n.
- A step that is right 95 percent of the time sounds reliable.
- Twenty such steps in a row succeed only about a third of the time.
- So long tasks need steps that are far more reliable than feels necessary, or ways to catch and correct mistakes along the way.
Why it matters
This arithmetic explains most agent disappointment.
- A demo is a short task shown once. Production is long tasks, thousands of times.
- There are three remedies, and every technique in this module is one of them: make each step more reliable, make the task shorter, and add checks that catch an error before the next step builds on it.
- A check that catches half of all step errors is worth more than a small improvement in the model.
In the real world: A team celebrating '96 percent tool-call accuracy' found its fifteen-step tasks succeeded barely half the time; shortening the task to nine steps did more than any prompt change.
Visual example
CompoundingEach cell is the step rate raised to the number of steps.
Read down a column: the same step reliability gives very different task reliability as tasks get longer.
Judging an agent by how often single steps look right. Measure whole tasks. A 97 percent step rate and a 60 percent task rate are the same system.